Cold Temperatures vs. LY in the East Will Have Consumers Gobbling Up Seasonal Categories!

Cold Temperatures vs. LY in the East Will Have Consumers Gobbling Up Seasonal Categories!

It’s here! Thanksgiving and the Black Friday weekend represent the official start to the holiday shopping season. Weather conditions for most of the fall season to date have featured warmer temperatures to last year, particularly across the interior and western regions of the U.S. The East Coast meanwhile, has trended colder than last year throughout November, reminding consumers that winter is right around the corner.

This weekend (November 18-20) will represent a continued transition into fall from the Plains eastward. Below normal temperatures will engulf interior regions and the entire East Coast. Showers will pass through the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Pacific Northwest. Measurable snow is expected in the Rockies and Northern Plains over the coming days and in the interior Northeast on Sunday. Cold temperatures and snowfall will help get consumers in the holiday mindset and drive demand for seasonal categories in these regions.

{cf97a2ff-8e37-4907-982c-b6d8474ee9d0}_2016-11-17_temp_and_wdd5The holiday week (November 21-27) will see the East Coast, Ohio Valley, and Deep South begin colder than normal. From Thanksgiving Day through the Black Friday weekend these markets transition to a more seasonal regime, but temperatures will trend much colder than LY. The colder comparisons in the eastern U.S. will drive the strongest opportunities for year-over-year growth in seasonal apparel and consumables. Temperatures across the Plains, Rockies, and West Coast will trend warmer than normal and LY throughout the week. The warmer conditions will challenge demand for cold weather merchandise.

Leading up to Thanksgiving Day, wet weather is possible from the West Coast to the Midwest, creating a nuisance for pre-holiday travelers. Mid-to-late week, rain will threaten the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, Midwest, and Northeast. Shoppers in the Southeast will continue to see dry conditions for much of the holiday week, lifting retail and restaurant foot traffic.

For reference, during the run-up week to Thanksgiving Day last year temperatures averaged near normal across the U.S. with strong regional trends including cold in the West, warm in the East, and wintry precipitation in the interior. Thanksgiving Day was the warmest since 2012 and wettest since 2010. Black Friday was the warmest since 2011 and the wettest in over 15 years driven by rain and snow in interior regions. The holiday weekend (November 26 – 29) was the warmest since 2012, warmer than normal, and the wettest since 2000.

For impacts specific to your business, please contact your Client Services representative, or call the Client Services Hotline at +1.610.854.2222.