ComScore’s Forecasts 16 Percent Holiday E-Commerce Growth

ComScore’s Forecasts 16 Percent Holiday E-Commerce Growth

ComScore reported its official spending forecast for the November-December 2014 holiday season, as well as desktop retail e-commerce spending for Q3 2014. The official comScore 2014 holiday season forecast is that total online retail spending for the November–December period will reach $61.0 billion, representing a 16-percent gain versus year ago. 

Spending using desktop computers for that period is expected to reach $53.2 billion, up 14 percent year-over-year, which is 4 percentage points higher than last season’s 10-percent growth rate. Mobile commerce is predicted to account for $7.9 billion of retail spending, representing 13 percent of total digital commerce and growing at an annual rate of 25 percent vs. last season.

* Forecast

“The 2014 online holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a bright one with more than $61 billion in spending expected, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 16 percent across desktop, smartphones and tablets,” said Gian Fulgoni, executive chairman emeritus of comScore. “Although some lasting effects of the great recession still provide some overhang on the economy, many of the latest indicators point toward signs of optimism for consumer spending during the holidays. Negative economic sentiment is at a five-year low, the stock market is near all-time highs, and inflation has been kept in check. The one negative is that real wages for many middle-class Americans have not grown and in fact may have declined slightly. That said, the recent trends we’ve seen in online consumer spending suggest that American consumers are ready to open their wallets and embrace the spirit of giving this holiday season.”

comScore Historical U.S. Desktop E-Commerce Spending by Quarter

comScore today also released its estimates of Q3 2014 U.S. desktop e-commerce sales. Q3 2014 saw desktop spending rise 13 percent year-over-year to $53.9 billion, marking the twentieth consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year growth and sixteenth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. It also represented a rebound of 3 percentage points from the 10-percent growth rate in Q2 2014.

Q3 2014 m-commerce spending on smartphones and tablets added $6.7 billion for the quarter, up 17 percent vs. year ago, for a digital commerce spending total of $60.6 billion in the quarter.