January 2014 & Q4 2013 Athletic Footwear Sales Executive Summary

January 2014 & Q4 2013 Athletic Footwear Sales Executive Summary

by Matt Powell. Analyst. SportsOneSource. matt@princetonanalysis.com

We’ll take a quick look at January 2014 sales and then a more in depth review of Q4 2013

January 2014 Footwear overview

  • January is the smallest month of the year for Sport Footwear.  Sales are affected dramatically by the weather.  Cold and snowy weather is not conducive to Sport Footwear sales.
  • Sales of Sport Footwear were flat in dollars to last year in January and down in the low singles in units.  Average selling price increased in the low singles
  • Men’s sales were flat in dollars; women’s down low singles and kids up high singles
  • Virtually every category decelerated from previous trend.
  • Basketball had its slowest month of the year, up in the mid to high singles.
  • Running sales were soft as well, hurt by the seasonably cold and snowy weather.

January 2014 Footwear sales by channel

  • Sales on the internet held up ok, with a low teens increase.  The web accounted for 14% of all sneakers sold in dollars in January.
  • Sales at Athletic Specialty/Full Line Sporting goods declined slightly.
  • Sales in the Family Channel were down in mid singles
  • Running Specialty grew in the high singles

January 2014 brand share

  • Jordan had a poor month, with sales down in the high singles.  The retro releases in January did not seem to be as strong as in previous years.  Quantities appeared to be more limited. Jordan had 11.5% share in January, down 100 basis points.
  • Nike brand had a mid-single digit increase for the month. Share grew 150 basis points to 41.3%.  Converse sales declined in the mid singles, with 2.2% share
  • Adidas had a strong January with sales up in the low teens.  Adidas had 7.8% share up 75 basis points.  Adidas had growth in Running, driven by Springblade, in Basketball and in Casual.  Reebok January sales declined about -20%. Share was down 60 basis points to 2.1%
  • Skechers had a high teens increase and a 2.9% share.  New Balance continued to struggle.  Under Armour had a low single digit decline in Footwear in January

Q4 2013 Footwear overview

  • Q4 sales had the weakest growth of any quarter in 2013.  Q4 sales improved in the low singles in dollars and declined in the low singles in units, resulting in a low single digit increase in average selling price/
  • Q1 grew in the low teens, Q2 in the mid singles and Q3 in the low singles.
  • The shortened Holiday season and the seasonably cold and snowy weather both were a factor in the weak Q4 performance.
  • For the quarter, Men’s sales grew in the low singles; women’s declined in the low singles and kids grew in the low teens. Men’s had the greatest deceleration from previous quarters.
  • Basketball slowed to a low teens increase in December.  Jordan in particular slowed.
  • Running also had a tough quarter, facing the warmer weather from 2012.
  • Retailers in the athletic space did not bet heavily on outdoor Footwear and consequently could not leverage the favorable weather.

Q4 2013 Footwear sales by channel

  • Sport Footwear on the internet represented 14% of all sneakers sold in Q4.  Internet sales grew in the mid-teens.  Sales in physical stores actually had a decline in Q4.  All of the growth in Q4 Sport Footwear came from the internet.
  • Sales in Athletic Specialty/ Full Line Sporting Goods had a small increase for the quarter.
  • Family Footwear posted a high single digit decline.
  • Running specialty grew in the high singles.

Q4 2013 Brand Share

  • Jordan had a tough quarter with sales down in the low singles. Share fell slightly to 13.7%. The loss of the holiday weekend really hurt as it eliminated a release.  Also, the later releases were weak compared to last year, both in quantity and quality.
  • Nike brand sale grew in the mid singles as share expanded 170 basis points to 41.6%. Strong Basketball, Running and training offset weakness in outdoor and casual.
  • Converse posted a low teens decline.
  • Adidas gained in the high singles in Q4, on strong Running and casual which was offset by weak Basketball. Adidas share improved 50 basis points to 8.1%.  Reebok declined about -20%.  Skechers had a mid-teens increase for the quarter, with 2.7% share.
  • Asics grew in the mid singles.  New Balance continued to struggle. Brooks grew in the mid singles, while Under Armour held onto to a high single digit increase. Mizuno and Saucony both had declines.
  • Timberland had a banner quarter with sales up about 30%.  Merrell, Keen, and The North Face all posted declines.

Q4 2013 Top Selling models

1              NIKE FREE 5.0+                                  $94.59

2              W NIKE FREE 5.0+                              $94.58

3              JORDAN 12                                           $158.94

4              JORDAN 11                                           $171.02

5              NIKE FLEX RUN 2013                       $71.53

6              JORDAN 5                                            $161.17

7              NIKE AIR MONARCH IV                  $48.83

8              NIKE KD 6                                            $128.43

9              NIKE ROSHE RUN                             $68.61

10           NIKE AIR MAX+ 2013                        $157.11

11           KIDS NIKE KD 6                                  $99.10

12           JORDAN 6 RINGS                              $158.30

13           TIMBERLAND 10061                        $173.94

14           KIDS JORDAN 11                               $125.74

15           JORDAN 10                                         $158.41

16           KIDS NIKE LEBRON XI                   $138.77

17           W NIKE FLEX RUN 2013                  $67.28

18           Converse ALL STAR OXFORD         $42.31

19           NIKE ZOOM SOLDIER 7                   $121.25

20           KIDS JORDAN 5                                 $116.19

21           KIDS NIKE ZOOM SOLDIER 7        $92.45

22           NIKE HYPERDUNK 13                      $129.70

23           TIMBERLAND WHITE LEDGE         $77.74

24           NIKE FREE TRAINER 5.0                  $85.62

25           W SKECHERS GO WALK                  $44.00

Q4 Basketball

  • In Q4, Basketball sales grew in the low teens, well off the full year trend of +20%.
  • Jordan in particularly slowed, with sales only up in the low single digits. The loss of the holiday weekend really hurt as it eliminated a release.  Also, the later releases were weak compared to last year, both in quantity and quality. Jordan share in Basketball fell nearly 600 basis points to 50.2%
  • Nike Basketball made up the Jordan decline, with an increase of more than a third. Nike Basketball grew more than 650 basis points to 41.7%.  Sales of Kevin Durant’s KD6 were particularly robust for the quarter.
  • Adidas Basketball had a mid-single digit gain with 5.8% share
  • Reebok Basketball declined in the mid-teens.  Under Armour had mid-teens growth in Basketball with 1.2% share

Q4 Running

  • Running eked out a low single digit gain for the quarter, well off the high singles digit annual increase.
  • Nike brand had a strong quarter with sales up in the high single digits, as share expanded 350 basis points to 60%
  • Asics posted a mid-single digit gain and a 13.9% share
  • Adidas was the big gainer in Running with sales up nearly 25% on a 3.7% share
  • Saucony and Mizuno both declined in Q4. New Balance continued to struggle.
  • Under Armour Running grew in the low singles, with 2% share