November Atheltic Footwear Analysis by Matt Powell

November Atheltic Footwear Analysis by Matt Powell

Analysis by Matt Powell of

Late Thanksgiving Notes:

·         November is an odd month.  The early weeks are some of the smallest of the year; then Black Friday week is one of the biggest.

·         This year with the latest possible Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday moved from Week three to Week four and the first full week of Holiday selling is lost from November. The Holiday selling season is actually six full days shorter than last year

·         Straight up, fiscal November 2013 compared to 2012, sales of Sport Footwear were down in the low singles.

·         However if we compare the two weeks prior to Thanksgiving and the week of Thanksgiving 2013 to 2012, sales of Sport Footwear were up in the mid singles, in line with year to date results

·         Black Friday week compared 2013 compared to 2012 sales  of Sport Footwear were actually up in the high singles, better than the year to date trend

·         What remains to be seen is if the industry can make up for those lost 6 days during December

·         For purposes of the overview, I will speak in terms of the fiscal periods as they fell, since that’s how budgets are set and buying plans are laid out. Financial reports will reflect this view. But remember that the shifted results are actually much better.  All of this will wash out as we look at the full 4th quarter.

November 2013 Footwear overview

·         Sport Footwear sales for November 2013 declined in the low singles in dollars and mid singles in units resulting in an increase in average selling price to $67.53.

·         Sales on the Internet only increased in the low singles as “Cyber Monday” slid into fiscal December.  That said, the Internet accounted for nearly 13% of all sneakers sold in the retailers we measure.

·         Sneaker sales at Athletic Specialty/Full Line Sporting goods declined slightly, while the Family Channel was down in the low singles.

·         Men’s Sport Footwear declined in the low singles, Women’s in the high singles, while kids’ Footwear had a mid-teens increase.

·         Regionally sales were worst in the Rockies and in the Northwest and were best in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic.

·         Basketball, with its reliance on Marquee releases, took a big hit on the calendar shift and still ended the month up in the high singles.  Looking at a shifted Black Friday week, Basketball sales grew in the mid-teens.  The Jordan 5 “Oreo,” released on Black Friday, was the number one selling shoe for the month.

·         Running faltered a little in November, with a low single digit sales decline.

·         Outdoor Footwear had another tough month, with sales down in the high singles.  Outdoor Footwear, shifted  for Black Friday, was up in the high singles, giving hope that the holiday season will bail out what have been another disappointing year so far.

November 2013 Footwear brand share

·         Nike brand gained 160 basis points in share to 41.2% on a low singles sales gain. Jordan had a mid-single digit decline on the calendar shift, with an 11.8% share. Converse slumped in the low teens with 2.1% share.

·         Adidas had a strong month with sales up in the mid-teens as Springblade gets up to commercial mass. Adidas gained 130 basis points to 9.2%. Reebok declined again. Skechers improved in the mid singles with 3% share.

·         New Balance continued to struggle.  Asics gained in the low singles. Under Armour was up in the low teens as strong Basketball offset weak running.  Brooks grew in the mid-teens, while Mizuno and Saucony had declines.

·         Timberland had a strong month up in the high teens driven by classic basics at full retail.  Columbia Footwear had a mid singles increase, while The North Face, and Keen both faced declines.

November 2013 Top Selling Models


·         Top selling 250 models: Nike 113, Jordan 29, Skechers 14, Asics 13, Timberland 12, Adi 10, Brooks 6, UA, and Converse 4.

November 2013 Apparel Overview

·         As we saw in Footwear the late Thanksgiving had a negative impact on apparel sales.

·         Straight up, apparel sales in November grew in the mid singles.  On a shifted basis, the two week prior to Thanksgiving and Black Friday 2013 compared to 2012 grew more than 25%.

·         Black Friday Week 2013 compared to 2012, sales were up about a third.

·         Sales on the internet were nearly 25% of total sales for the month and grew in the high singles.

·         Sales at Full Line/Athletic Specialty grew in the mid-teens.

·         Men’s Sport Apparel grew in the high singles; Women’s in the mid-singles and kids in the low teens.

·         Outerwear sales were flat for the month, an improvement from previous trend.  Fleece sales (a major Black Friday category) slowed to a mid-teens increase.  Active Tops were up in the mid-teens, paced by a 70% increase in Long Sleeve Active tops, where long sleeve fitness tops tripled. Active bottoms had a small increase.

·         The North Face and Columbia again both had declines, while Patagonia, Marmot, and Arc’teryx all had nice gains.

·         Under Armour paced the athletic gains, up 40% with very aggressive Black Friday pricing on Fleece. Nike Sport Apparel sales grew in the high teens for the month.  Adidas had a decline. Jordan apparel grew in the high singles.