11 Nov October 2013 Athletic Footwear Sales Overview
by Matt Powell: matt@princetonanalysis.com
October 2013 Footwear Overview
· October is one of the smallest months of the year for Sport Footwear. We’ll take a fast look at the month and then a more detailed look at Third Quarter.
· Sales of Sport footwear in October increased in the high single digits in dollars and in the mid-single digit in units resulting in a low single digit increase in average selling price. Recently we’ve seen a moderation in ASP growth. The average price for sport footwear in October was $65.08
· Basketball had an outstanding month in October with sales up more than a third. Marquee releases in a small month like October can really move the needle.
· Running continued its strong trend up in the high single digits for October
· Outdoor footwear has not started the winter season well. Sales for Outdoor footwear in sporting goods retailers for October declined in the low teens. Of the major brands, only Timberland is performing well
October Footwear sales by Channel
· Full line Sporting Goods/Athletic Specialty had a strong month with sales up in the low teens.
· Family Footwear was flat for the month
· Run Specialty had a small gain
· Sales on the internet only grew in the mid-teens, well off the previous pace. In a month that counted on new releases to drive sales, the internet is at a disadvantage as the web simply cannot handle the traffic that releases bring, forcing customers to physical stores.
October Footwear Brand share
· Jordan was the hottest brand in the space for October, with sales up 30%. Great releases in a small month really leverage.
· Under Armour cooled off after a very good back to school. Sales in October were up in the low teens
· Nike and Adidas both had mid-teens gains for the month
· Reebok continued to show signs of improvement with sales only down in the mid singles
· Skechers gained more than 20% for October
· Timberland had a 25% increase for the month.
Q3 2013 Footwear Overview
· Sales of Sport footwear bounced back nicely in third quarter. Sales in dollars were up in the mid singles and up in the low singles in units yielding an average selling price of $60.78.
· Kids’ footwear again outperformed the other genders, up in the high singles. Men’s grew in the mid singles while women’s was flat for the period. Under Armour’s women’s footwear business declined in the low teens.
· Basketball rebounded (so to speak) from a sluggish Q2 (+13%) to a solid +25% gain in Q3
· Running again grew in the high singles for the quarter. Training was up in the low singles for the quarter on some strong retro releases
· Casual continued to struggle, down in the mid singles
· Outdoor Footwear declined in the high singles, as we await the onset of snowy weather. The early results do not portend a strong season.
· Cleated footwear grew in the high single digits for the quarter, enhanced by the Under Armour Highlight cleat.
· As stated, Men’s sport footwear grew in the mid singles for the period. Breaking it down more finely, Men’s shoes over $100 grew in the high teens; men’s shoes under $100 were essentially flat to last year
Q3 Footwear sales by Channel
· Sales of Sport Footwear on the internet grew in the mid-teens for the quarter and represented 10% of sales in the retailers measured by SSI
· Sales in Full Line Sporting Goods/Athletic Specialty grew in the high singles
· Family Footwear had a small decline for the quarter
· Run Specialty also had a high single digit increase
Q3 Footwear Brand share
· For the third quarter, Under Armour had the strongest growth in sport footwear, +30%. However, sales tailed off at the end of the quarter, as excitement for the Highlight cleat died out. Two thirds of UA’s growth in Q3 came from that single shoe. Football and Running helped offset weakness in women’s footwear and training. UA’s footwear share grew 40 basis points to 2.3%
· Nike brand share gained 250 basis points to 44.7% on a low teens sales gain. Jordan grew sales in the high teens and picked up 100 basis points to share to 11.5%. Converse share decline to 3.1% on a mid singles sales decline. Nike Inc. had 59.3% share in sport foot for Q3, the highest ever recorded for the brand.
· Adidas had a small gain in Q3 footwear, with 9.3% share. Reebok’s trend improved through the quarter, but still has down about -20% with a 1.9% share.
· Skechers now is the 5th largest sport footwear brand, moving ahead of the struggling New Balance. Skechers sales grew in the mid-teens for the quarter as share hit 3.1%
· The core running brands all had solid results for Q3: Asics, up high singles, Brooks Up low teens, Mizuno, up mid singles, Saucony flat.
· The outdoor brands (net of Timberland) struggled. Merrell, Keen, and The North Face all had declines, while Timberland grew about 20%.
Q3 Footwear Top Selling Models
· NIKE FLEX RUN 2013 $68.48, NIKE FREE RUN+ 5 $93.33, W NIKE FREE 5.0+ $92.79, NIKE AIR MONARCH IV $49.80, NIKE AIR FORCE 1 LOW $88.59, JORDAN RETRO 5 $155.58, W NIKE FLEX RUN 2013 $67.84, W Skechers GO WALK $44.15, JORDAN SON OF MARS LOW $138.50, Converse ALL STAR OX $42.46, NIKE AIR MAX+ 2013 $166.33, NIKE ZOOM VAPOR CRBN FLY 2 TD $129.97, JORDAN RETRO 4 MID $158.78, NIKE ROSHE RUN 511881 $68.72, W NIKE REVOLUTION 2 $40.92
· Of the top 250 models, Nike has 126, Jordan 41, Adidas 17, Asics 10, Skechers 9, Brooks and Converse 6, Under Armour 5
· Top models by brands not already mentioned: Adidas, Superstar II, $68.33; Asics, W Gel Kayano 19 $123.89; Brooks W Glycerin 11, $130.53; Under Armour Highlight Cleat $107.72
Running Footwear
· Running again grew in the high singles for the quarter, driven by share leader Nike (59.3% share, +500 basis points) who had a 20% sales increase.
· Lightweight running grew in the high teens. Cushioning declined in the low singles, Stability down in the mid singles and Motion Control up about 25%. Minimal/Barefoot (net of Nike) declined more than a third.
· Men’s running shoes over $100 increased nearly 20%.
· Under Armour gained more than 20% in running and had 2.7% share
· Adidas had a high singles gain on the Springblade release.
· New Balance running declined in the mid-teens
Basketball
· Basketball rebounded (so to speak) from a sluggish Q2 (+13%) to a solid +25% gain in Q3. Nike brand was the start with sales up more than a third on solid marquee releases from Lebron, Durant, and Kobe. Adidas basketball grew about 25% as solid gains early petered out in October. Jordan Basketball grew in the high teens. Reebok and Under Armour Basketball had about a 25% gain for the quarter.
· Jordan had 55.3% share in Basketball for the quarter. Nike had 37% (+350 basis points). Adidas share was 5.4%. Reebok 1.4% and Under Armour 0.7%.
As always, feedback, questions, and suggestions are welcomed and encouraged. My best email is matt@princetonanalysis.com